Hefter Report

The Hefter Report - September 2022

Global stock and bond markets are having a terrible year. The MSCI global stock index is down 21.62% and the international government bond index is down 25.23%. Especially hard hit this year are technology stocks with the NASDAQ down 29.27%.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - July 2022

Despite the recent rally, in our view, the bear market may last a little longer. We think inflation is trending downward but could persist in the 4-6% range for the near future. If the Fed is satisfied with a 4% inflation rate, they may only have to raise rates one more time. If the Fed indicates a pause after the next increase, equity indices can rally further.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - June 2022

The June 10th Consumer Price Index report indicates that inflation is worse than forecasted1. We believe that the Fed will now have little choice but to put the economy in a recession to stem the tide of higher prices. In our minds, the main question is how deep or mild the recession will be. If the Fed continues in its stated objective of bringing inflation down to 2% from the current rate of 8.6%, the recession could be prolonged and painful. If, however, they were to revise their objective to the 4-5% range, we believe less interest rate hikes would be needed, and the economy would fare much better.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - May 2022

In October 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, Warren Buffett wrote: “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” Since then, the S&P 500 has rallied over 400%.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - April 2022

This past Friday, April 22, US stocks fell about 2.5% in indiscriminate selling across virtually all industries including recent safe havens such as value stocks, commodities, utilities, and consumer staples. Thus far in 2022, the tech heavy NASDAQ has been hit the hardest, down around 19%, while the broader S&P 500 index is down around 11.5%. Per the Wall Street Journal, for the past few days value stocks declined more than growth stocks and investors seem to have nowhere to hide. This includes high quality US bonds which are down about 10%.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - March 2022

As we said two weeks ago in our report, equity markets are experiencing a painful correction because of the Russian invasion into Ukraine. At this time, there is no way of knowing when and how this war will end.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - February 2022

As of this writing (Sunday February 20) it appears more and more likely that Russia will invade Ukraine. If that happens we believe commodity prices such as oil, Liquid natural gas and grains would rise adding to an already accelerated rate of inflation. It would also lead, in our opinion to further stock market declines If however, a war is somehow prevented or limited in nature commodity prices could come down and stock market prices could rally.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - January 2022

The major US stock market indices have not seen a 10% decline since April 2020. We think that we are seeing that correction now.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - October 2021

After almost 12 months, the S&P 500 has finally had a 5% correction. The reasons for this pullback are varied, but one that stands out the most is the rapid rise in interest rates, particularly the key 10-year US Treasury which has risen from 1.29% in August to the current 1.53%. With supply shortages across industries from paper goods to private jet planes, inflation seems to be poking its disquieting head everywhere. The key question is whether this rise in inflation is transitory or more long lasting.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - March 2021

Since the start of 2021, the closely watched US Treasury 10 year bond yield has risen over 50% from 0.93% to a high of 1.61% before recently settling around 1.44%. Since the low of 0.51% during the height of the pandemic the yield has nearly tripled. This dramatic move sparked considerable volatility across stock and bond markets as investors appeared to become unsettled.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - January 2021

As we've previously mentioned, in our view global equities were poised to go up regardless of who would reside in the White House and which party would control the Senate. Markets are currently focused on the likelihood of additional stimulus. This likely trillion dollar plus influx of funds should help contribute to the simultaneous world-wide economic recovery we believe wil take place once COVID vaccinations reach critical mass and economies reopen.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - December 2020

This has been a year like no other. Through no fault of their own, millions of Americans lost their jobs. Despite considerable sweat and hard work, countless businesses like restaurants, gyms and others permanently closed their doors due to the effects of widespread lockdowns. Meanwhile, front line heroes like health care workers and first responders continue to put forth a herculean effort to slow the rising death toll and suffering.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - July 2020

As we see it, the great bull market that began on March 9, 2009 topped out on February 19, 2020. A bear market ensued until March 23rd of this year, producing a total decline of approximately 34% in the S&P 500 during that short period. Since then, the S&P 500 has rallied over 40% and we are hopeful a new bull market has just begun.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - April 2020

As of Friday, April 24th, this year has really been a tale of two markets. Most of the market is down. Especially hard hit during this Covid-19 crisis are sectors including restaurants, hotels, autos, energy, financials, industrials, small cap stocks and more. A few areas have benefited from the new stay-at-home economy, including technology, consumer staples and health care. In the past few days we believe we’re starting to see signs that this dichotomy may be changing.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - March 2020

After OPEC was unable to come to terms on a supply cut, oil prices plummeted adding to downward pressure on interest rates and equities. Lower oil prices typically discourage drilling and exploration. This can also lead to layoffs and an economic downturn in oil producing areas. Some will argue that declining prices at the pump will benefit.

Read More >>

HLM Short Take - February 28, 2020

After OPEC was unable to come to terms on a supply cut, oil prices plummeted adding to downward pressure on interest rates and equities. Lower oil prices typically discourage drilling and exploration. This can also lead to layoffs and an economic downturn in oil producing areas. Some will argue that declining prices at the pump will benefit.

Read More >>

HLM Short Take - February 25, 2020

Historically, we believe equity markets do not fare well amidst uncertainty. The recent outbreak of the Coronavirus has fostered considerable scientific and economic uncertainty. Therefore we cannot predict with any reasonable conviction how long the virus will last nor how much it will spread. We also cannot confidently assess the degree or how long global supply chains will be disrupted.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - January 2020

Hostilities with Iran appear to have deescalated for now, the phase one trade deal with China is anticipated to be signed on January 15th, and the moderate candidates are currently leading the polls in the Democratic presidential primary race.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - December 2019

With US stock market indices near all-time highs, the US and China appear to have reached a phase one trade deal.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - October 2019

With the announcement of the so called “skinny deal” with China, some of the risk in global equity markets has been removed.

Read More >>

The Hefter Report - August 2019

On the morning of August 1st, the US stock indices were near record highs with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 15.47% YTD to 26,583.

Read More >>