Hefter Report

The Hefter Report - July 2020

As we see it, the great bull market that began on March 9, 2009 topped out on February 19, 2020. A bear market ensued until March 23rd of this year, producing a total decline of approximately 34% in the S&P 500 during that short period. Since then, the S&P 500 has rallied over 40% and we are hopeful a new bull market has just begun.

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The Hefter Report - April 2020

As of Friday, April 24th, this year has really been a tale of two markets. Most of the market is down. Especially hard hit during this Covid-19 crisis are sectors including restaurants, hotels, autos, energy, financials, industrials, small cap stocks and more. A few areas have benefited from the new stay-at-home economy, including technology, consumer staples and health care. In the past few days we believe we’re starting to see signs that this dichotomy may be changing.

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The Hefter Report - March 2020

After OPEC was unable to come to terms on a supply cut, oil prices plummeted adding to downward pressure on interest rates and equities. Lower oil prices typically discourage drilling and exploration. This can also lead to layoffs and an economic downturn in oil producing areas. Some will argue that declining prices at the pump will benefit.

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HLM Short Take - February 28, 2020

After OPEC was unable to come to terms on a supply cut, oil prices plummeted adding to downward pressure on interest rates and equities. Lower oil prices typically discourage drilling and exploration. This can also lead to layoffs and an economic downturn in oil producing areas. Some will argue that declining prices at the pump will benefit.

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HLM Short Take - February 25, 2020

Historically, we believe equity markets do not fare well amidst uncertainty. The recent outbreak of the Coronavirus has fostered considerable scientific and economic uncertainty. Therefore we cannot predict with any reasonable conviction how long the virus will last nor how much it will spread. We also cannot confidently assess the degree or how long global supply chains will be disrupted.

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The Hefter Report - January 2020

Hostilities with Iran appear to have deescalated for now, the phase one trade deal with China is anticipated to be signed on January 15th, and the moderate candidates are currently leading the polls in the Democratic presidential primary race.

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The Hefter Report - December 2019

With US stock market indices near all-time highs, the US and China appear to have reached a phase one trade deal.

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The Hefter Report - October 2019

With the announcement of the so called “skinny deal” with China, some of the risk in global equity markets has been removed.

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The Hefter Report - August 2019

On the morning of August 1st, the US stock indices were near record highs with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 15.47% YTD to 26,583.

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The Hefter Report - July 2019

In our view, global equity markets remain in an upward trajectory. Fundamentally, low interest rates, low inflation and good earnings are in place (the key ingredients to a bull market).

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HLM Short Take - May 31, 2019

As of Friday morning May 31, the 3 major US stock market indices have dipped below their 200 day moving averages.

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The Hefter Report - April 2019

According to Reuter’s news service, US equity mutual funds saw $98 billion withdrawn in December of last year.

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HLM Short Take - March 11, 2019

Since the December 26th low, the S&P 500 index has rallied 19%. We are currently experiencing a pullback.

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HLM Short Take - January 8, 2019

After the close on Friday, December 14th we stated in an email that a crucial technical support level of the market had been broken.

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HLM Short Take - December 21, 2018

After last Friday’s break of technical support, we estimated in the Hefter Report that the market could fall another 5-8%.

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